Romanian presidential election puts country’s NATO drift on the line

ROME — Ahead of a crucial vote in Romania on Sunday that could see a NATO-skeptic, Putin-friendly candidate elected president, a leading Romanian defense expert has said the Atlantic alliance’s growing ties to the country are not at risk.

Iulian Chifu, a former adviser to the Romanian government on international security, said institutional safeguards would prevent candidate Calin Georgescu undermining NATO’s presence in Romania, even if he becomes president at the weekend.

“Thanks to Romania’s constitution there is not much he can do,” said Chifu, who heads the Conflict Prevention and Early Warning Center think tank in Bucharest.

Fears about NATO’s future in Romania have grown since Georgescu, 62, defied the polls to win a first round of voting on Nov. 24 after describing Putin as a “patriot” and opposing NATO’s missile defense set-up at Deveselu in the south of the country.

On Sunday Georgescu will face pro-European centrist candidate Elena Lusconi in a run-off for the presidency. In Romania the president doubles as commander of the armed forces and has nominal control over foreign and security policy.

A hitherto reliable NATO partner, Romania has a strategic position on Europe’s eastern flank with a long border with Ukraine and access to the Black Sea.

The country has donated a Patriot battery to Ukraine and hosts an air base at Kogălniceanu which is being turned into one of NATO’s largest and set to outgrow the U.S. base at Ramstein in Germany.

Romania also hosts a French-led NATO battle group, has ordered 32 F-35s and is home to a training hub for Ukrainian F-16 pilots.

This week, however, Georgescu said he would halt support to Ukraine, including the pilot training and has said he has no interest in Ukraine’s defense against Russia, claiming he will seek to pursue Romania’s interests alone in the region.

Alarm in Europe over his candidacy grew when Romania’s top security council claimed on Wednesday that the country had been targeted by “aggressive hybrid Russian attacks” during the first round of presidential voting. The council released reports suggesting social media algorithms had been manipulated to favor Georgescu’s campaign and that local influencers had been paid to back him, even though he claimed to have spent nothing on his campaign.

Additionally, scores of hacking attacks on election servers were the work of a state actor, the documents said.

That triggered a sharp response from the U.S. State Department which said, “Romania’s hard-earned progress anchoring itself in the Transatlantic community cannot be turned back by foreign actors seeking to shift Romania’s foreign policy away from its Western alliances.”

But analyst Chifu said the alarm about Georgescu winning the presidency was exaggerated.

“The president does have a role in security, defense and foreign policy but he is dependent on the government, which controls the foreign ministry, interior ministry and intelligence service,” he said.

“The Supreme Defense Council is under the president but half of its members are appointed by the government and the other half by parliament, while the prime minister is vice president of the council,” he added. Parliamentary elections held last weekend saw mainstream, pro-NATO parties secure a majority.

Chifu said the president was also able to block parliament’s nominations for ambassadors, generals and judges, but only once. “At that point if parliament proposes the name a second time he cannot block it. If he does he can be impeached by a majority in parliament. Then there is a referendum,” he said.

“With a two-thirds vote in parliament, the president can also be accused of high treason and ousted then sent to trial,” Chifu added.

“The next president of Romania would not be able to reverse deals that have gone through parliament like the enlargement of the NATO base,” he said.

Sandu-Valentin Mateiu a Romanian defense commentator and former naval captain and military intelligence officer, said it was still unclear what Georgescu would try to do if elected president.

“He is a mystery. He has denied things he said in past interviews. He has called the missile defense system a disgrace then said he would reevaluate it. He has said Romania would fulfill its obligations to alliances but will demand more respect. It’s unclear what ‘respect’ means,” he said.

“It’s probable he won’t want to leave NATO or the European Union, but we are in uncharted territory,” he added.