Could an independent vet pull off one of the biggest election upsets?

One of the biggest political upsets this election cycle could come from a Nebraska veteran who didn’t even win a primary battle last spring.

Dan Osborn, an independent candidate for one of Nebraska’s Senate seats, has been tied or leading incumbent Republican Sen. Deb Fischer in multiple recent polls. If he manages to win the closely contested race, the result could shake up the balance of power in the chamber, and establish a template for independent candidates to find success in future races.

Osborn served four years in the Navy including a tour aboard the aircraft carrier Constellation. After leaving active duty, he has served with both the Tennessee National Guard and Nebraska Army National Guard.

He announced his candidacy in September 2023 to little fanfare and has pledged not to caucus with either the Republicans or Democrats if he is elected, solidifying his independent message. The union leader has worked as an industrial mechanic and leaned heavily on his outsider status during his campaign.

“Less than 2% of our elected officials in the House and Senate come from the working class,” he said during a recent interview on the Independent Americans podcast about his run for office. “We’re just simply not represented. And that’s why the independent piece of the race is so important to me.

“I’m not going to be beholden to a party boss or a corporation. I’m going to be beholden to the people who elected me.”

Fischer is a two-term senator who sits on the chamber’s Armed Services Committee and has made her role in national military and veterans policy a selling point in the campaign.

But Osborn has attacked her record on those issues, including her opposition to the PACT Act in 2022. He has promised to boost troops’ pay and back more job training programs for veterans if elected.

Osborn earned the endorsement of Independent Veterans of America earlier this summer. He said his time in the service helped shape his world view and has given him a better approach to public service.

“It instills a discipline in you that never goes away,” he said on the podcast. “That has helped shape my work ethic. I have a certain level of focus that I don’t believe I would have had otherwise.”

There are no current independent House members. The Senate currently has four independent members, but only two — Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont — were elected as independents. West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin and Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema both ran for office as Democrats and later switched their party affiliation.

Both Manchin and Sinema will leave the chamber at the end of this session. If Osborn upsets Fischer, he would become a key swing vote on a host of contentious Senate issues and could demand special attention from both sets of party leaders in need of an extra vote to advance their agendas.